Real Estate: Like a Phoenix Rising from the Ashes

The real estate market has experienced difficulty over the last five years. From 2000-2006, house values climbed to unsustainable heights. Since then, we have seen much of this appreciation disappear. Now many look at the housing market as dead and lying in the ashes of its previous glory. However, there is growing evidence that, just like the Phoenix, there is a new market currently rising from those ashes.

Buyer activity is increasing

The first sign of an improving market is buyers again beginning to shop for a home for themselves and their family. That is taking place right now.

Pete Flint, CEO of Trulia said in a recent press release:

“We’re seeing a national resurgence of buyer and seller activity on Trulia.com. In January alone, we experienced an unprecedented level of site traffic including 11 million unique visitors – which is more than 70 percent year-over-year growth… (We) are now experiencing 100,000 property views per minute.”

The latest Credit Suisse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Agents reports:

Our Monthly Survey of Real Estate Agents pointed to another month of improved traffic – the third straight month, and the highest level for our traffic index since April 2010, the last month of the homebuyer tax credit. The improved economy and stronger consumer confidence has translated into an increase in homebuyer traffic.

But have they actually started purchasing?

The best news is that buyers are not just looking. The latest National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) Pending Sales Report, which quantifies the number of homes going into contract, shows continued improvement:

Pending home sales improved further in December, marking the fifth gain in the past six months.

Bottom Line

Buyers are back out looking at homes and the number that are actually purchasing is steadily increasing. It appears the housing market is on the verge of a rebirth. The Phoenix is beginning to flap its wings.

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The Cost of Waiting for Price to Fall

Many purchasers have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for home prices to hit bottom. They want to guarantee that they are purchasing at the best possible price. Like them, we also believe that prices still have some room to fall in most markets. However, we disagree that waiting is a good financial decision. The buyer should not be concerned about housing prices. They should be concerned about cost.

The cost of a house is made up of the price and the interest rate they will be paying. Two different pieces of news released yesterday highlight this point.

PRICES

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their 4th quarter housing research report. In the release, they reported that home sales rose 15.4% in the 4th quarter over the 3rd quarter. They also showed that prices remained stable during the year:

The national median existing single-family price was $170,600 in the fourth quarter, up 0.2 percent from $170,300 in the fourth quarter of 2009.

A buyer who delayed a purchase might find solace in the fact that prices have not increased. However, the other news released yesterday paints a different picture.

INTEREST RATES

The Primary Mortgage Market Survey was released by Freddie Mac which showed that the 30 year fixed rate mortgage was at 5.05%. Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist of Freddie Mac said:

“Long-term bond yields jumped on positive economic data reports, which placed upward pressure on mortgage rates this week…As a result, interest rates on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to the highest level since the last week in April 2010.”

So prices have remained stable but interest rates have risen dramatically in the last 90 days. What does that mean to a buyer looking to purchase a home this year?
The price is the same. It just costs more.

Let’s show you what the news means:

By sitting on the sidelines for the last 90 days a purchaser lost:

* $89.44 a month
* $1,073.28 a year
* $32,198.40 over the thirty year life of the mortgage

If you buy a $340,000 home, double all these numbers.

Bottom Line

Even if prices fall another 10% this year, the cost of a home will increase if interest rates go up more than 1%. Buyers should not worry where prices are going. They should be concerned where costs will be later in the year.

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