Yet Another Housing Bear Turns Bull

Every day there seems to be more positive news about the real estate recovery. We attempt to give you two things in this blog:

1. The actual data that indicates where the housing market is headed
2. Quotes from analysts who have scrutinized this data

Today, we want to give you a quote by Ivy Zelman which appeared last week in a Wall Street Journal article Stunned Home Buyers Find the Bidding Wars Are Back.

“We very much believe we’ve hit bottom.”


Why is the quote from Zelman important? She is an industry expert consistently recognized by Institutional Investor, Greenwich Associates, StarMine and The Wall Street Journal as an industry-leading analyst. She has been nicknamed ‘Poison Ivy’ for her harsh positions on housing over the last several years. Now, Zelman is calling a bottom and projecting prices to moderately increase in the next twelve months.

Again, another expert on housing is calling a bottom; another bear turns bull.

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Six Don'ts After You Apply for a Mortgage

I learned a long time ago that “common sense is NOT common practice“. This is especially the case during the emotional time that surrounds buying a home, when people tend to do some non-commonsensical things. Here are a few that I’ve seen over the years that have delayed (and even killed) deals:

1. Don’t deposit cash into your bank accounts. Lenders need to source your money and cash is not really traceable. Small, explainable deposits are fine, but getting $10,000 from your parents as a gift in cash is not. Discuss the proper way to track your assets with your loan officer.
2. Don’t make any large purchases like a new car or a bunch of new furniture. New debt comes with it, including new monthly obligations. New obligations create new qualifications. People with new debt have higher ratios…higher ratios make for riskier loans…and sometimes qualified borrowers are no longer qualifying.
3. Don’t co-sign other loans for anyone. When you co-sign, you are obligated. With that obligation comes higher ratios, as well. Even if you swear you won’t be making the payments, the lender will be counting the payment against you.
4. Don’t change bank accounts. Remember, lenders need to source and track assets. That task is significantly easier when there is a consistency of accounts. Frankly, before you even transfer money between accounts, talk to your loan officer.
5. Don’t apply for new credit. It doesn’t matter whether it’s a new credit card or a new car, when you have your credit report run by organizations in multiple financial channels (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.), your FICO score will be affected. Lower credit scores can determine your interest rate and maybe even your eligibility for approval.
6. Don’t close any credit accounts. Many clients have erroneously believed that having less available credit makes them less risky and more approvable. Wrong. A major component of your score is your length and depth credit history (as opposed to just your payment history) and your total usage of credit as a percentage of available credit. Closing accounts has a negative impact on both those determinants of your score.
The best advice is to fully disclose and discuss your plans with your loan officer before you do anything financial in nature. Any blip in income, assets, or credit should be reviewed and executed in a way to keep your application in the most positive light.

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Is the Housing Market Actually Recovering?

Everyone wants to know if the housing market is truly showing signs of a recovery. There are conflicting headlines every day. One day, we hear sales are up. The next day it is reported that prices are down. Is the real estate market coming back? The answer is ‘yes’ and ‘no’.

There are two aspects that must be evaluated: house sales and house prices. They will not recover at the same time. Sales are already increasing rather nicely while prices will still soften in many markets through 2012.

Home Sales
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) issues a Pending Home Sales Report each month. We can see by the graph below that sales have been increasing nicely over the last twelve months. Real estate professionals across the country are reporting that activity has increased compared to last year. The sales side of the recovery is starting to show great promise.

Home Prices
Many price indices have shown that national home prices are continuing to stumble. Even with demand increasing, we must look at where the supply of housing stock stands. Though ‘visible’ inventory (homes currently on the market) is shrinking, there is still a large overhang of ‘shadow’ inventory (foreclosures about to come to market as a result of the National Mortgage Settlement). This increase in inventory will outpace the increase in demand and thereby cause prices to continue to soften in many parts of the country.

Bottom Line
Housing is coming back. However, sales will come back before prices. We will not see prices appreciate until we work through the oversupply of homes on the market.

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Fastest Pace for OC Home Market Since 2005

Steve Thomas of ReportsOnHousing.com’s latest study of the Orange County housing market shows the early 2012 home shopping season is a curious mix of rising buyer activity as the number of owners willing to test the market shrinks.

Snippets of the latest Thomas report, based on trends found in brokers’ MLS listings system, as of Feb. 16 …

-Demand grew in two weeks by 435 homes to 3,569. Last year, it wasn’t until March 31 that dealmaking hit this level.

-Thomas mixes his demand and supply math to create a “market time” measure that shows how long it would take to sell all homes on the market at the current pace of new escrows. This time, expected market time for Orange County is 2.1 months — lowest level since August 2005, or 78 months ago. It was 3.65 months a year ago.

-For homes priced below $500,000, demand is up 32% vs. last year with just a “blistering” — as Thomas called it — market time of 1.6 months.

-Active listing inventory actually fell 226 homes in the past two weeks to 7,597 — lowest at this time of year since 2005. “A drop in inventory during this time of year is completely unprecedented,” Thomas said. The number of homes for sale has fallen 29 percent in a year.

Thomas concludes: “For Orange County housing, the beginning of 2012 has proven to be remarkably robust. Demand, the number of new
pending sales over the prior month, has been steadily growing, but the last two weeks have been extraordinary. … This is more than just an encouraging start to 2012, it is a real sign of a much different housing market.”

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What Does Warren Buffet Think About Buying A Home?

Warren Buffet is seen by many as the greatest investor of our time. When he speaks, people listen. Like anyone else in his position of influence, he is criticized by some for using his bullhorn to promote his own business agendas at times. That makes it very interesting when we occasionally learn of how he privately advises those closest to him.

Such a situation occurred this week. Debbie Bosanek, Warren Buffet’s secretary of 37 years, recently purchased a second home in Surprise, Arizona.

In an article in the Omaha World Herald, Mrs. Bosanek discussed her reasons for purchasing a second home and the personal advice she received from Mr. Buffet.

“I just thought it was time to buy a home. Warren tells me that it will be the best opportunity in my lifetime. Mortgage rates are low and prices have dropped dramatically…I share Warren’s view about the future of America, and we believe that our country will do just fine. I’m happy to make this investment.”

The greatest investor of the last century privately has told the people closest to him that buying a home right now “will be the best opportunity in [their] lifetime.”

That’s good enough for us. How about you?

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